FOMC/Federal Reserve Projections Data
Understanding the Fed’s Economic Outlook
Four times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) alongside its monetary policy decision. This document compiles the individual forecasts of the 19 FOMC participants—the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the twelve Federal Reserve Bank presidents—for key economic variables over the next several years.
The SEP provides a window into how the Fed sees the economy evolving and where policymakers believe interest rates need to go to achieve their dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Unlike a single official forecast, the SEP captures the range of views among policymakers, revealing both consensus and disagreement.
Fed Dot Plot (Federal Funds Rate Projections)
Each dot represents one FOMC participant’s projection for where the federal funds rate should be at the end of each year. The 19 participants include Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The median dots highlight the middle projection when all participants’ views are arranged from lowest to highest. The “Longer Run” column reflects each participant’s estimate of the neutral rate—the level to which rates would settle in the absence of economic shocks under appropriate monetary policy.
FOMC Projections: September vs December 2025
This chart compares the median projections from FOMC participants across the September and December 2025 meetings. Real GDP growth is measured as the percent change from Q4 of the prior year to Q4 of the indicated year. The unemployment rate reflects the projected average civilian unemployment rate in Q4 of each year. PCE and Core PCE inflation measure the percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (with Core excluding food and energy). The federal funds rate is the projected midpoint of the target range at year-end.
Inflation Path: PCE and Core PCE
This chart tracks both headline and core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures. PCE inflation captures price changes across all consumer spending. Core PCE excludes volatile food and energy prices to better reflect underlying inflation trends. Historical values show actual Q4-over-Q4 percent changes; future values are median projections from FOMC participants. The 2% line represents the Fed’s longer-run inflation target.
Unemployment Rate: Actuals and Projections
This chart shows the civilian unemployment rate as measured in Q4 of each year. Historical values are actual data; future values are median FOMC projections with ranges showing the spread of participant views. The longer-run estimate (4.2%) represents participants’ assessment of the natural rate of unemployment—the level consistent with stable inflation under normal economic conditions.
Uncertainty Diffusion Index
This index quantifies how uncertain FOMC participants feel about their projections relative to typical forecast uncertainty over the past 20 years. It is calculated as the number of participants responding “Higher” minus those responding “Lower,” divided by total participants. A value of 1.0 means all participants view uncertainty as higher than normal; 0 indicates more certainty views. The index is reported separately for GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation.
Risk Assessment Distribution
This chart shows how FOMC participants assess the balance of risks around their projections. Participants indicate whether they see risks as weighted to the downside, broadly balanced, or weighted to the upside for each variable. Downside risk means outcomes could be worse than projected (lower growth, higher unemployment, or lower inflation); upside risk means outcomes could exceed projections (higher growth, lower unemployment, or higher inflation). The arrows show how the distribution of these assessments shifted between the September and December 2025 meetings.